The problem with Ikle is that he is a long time Neocon, one of those who pushed the administration into the Iraq war. What he and most Neocons don't want Americans to realize is that the "terrorist" threat is the consequence of US (and UK) neo-colonialism in the Muslim world. The US and the UK have a long history of using military and other means to interfere in the affairs of the Muslim Middle East, exercising a blatant colonialism based on regime overthrow as well as military invasion. "Terrorism" has been the Muslim reaction to this aggression. The best way to avoid "annihilation" by terror would be for the US and the UK, and their surrogates, to get out of the Middle East and leave the Muslim nations there alone. If we left them alone they would leave us alone and have no reason to attack us. But Ikle would prefer that we not understand this.

The scenarios painted by Iklé are disturbing; they bear all too similar a resemblance to those from Vernor Vinge's science fiction novel, "Rainbows End", with the exception that current governments are not at all prepared to cope with a world in which small fringe groups can obtain WMD. It was even more of a surprise to realize that the scenario behind the graphic novel and movie "V" is precisely that described by Iklé: covert internal use of WMD by political extremists so that they can can power in the ensuing chaos. But Iklé's analysis is harder to discount than movies, comic books, or novels.

An unexpected gem from the "Annihilation" is Iklé's portrayer of Ronald Reagan, who had the reputation as a war monger, as someone who abhored the risks inherent in a policy of Mutual Assured Destruction.

My biggest complaint is that, despite its short length, the book is very repetitive.

This 100 page book is not a defeatist story of gloom and doom. Despite its unflinching analysis of ominous threats to the survival of our nation and our civilization, it offers an innovative list of five measures that the United States could to take to avert "annihilation from within" - a nuclear detonation or other super 9/11 designed by a new Lenin or Hitler aimed at seizing power in the US, or any nation. First, Iklé reveals that after a decade of efforts by Los Alamos, Livermore and the Pentagon's Science Board, mid-level officials have blocked the massive research scientists agree is needed to build nuclear weapons detectors. One idea from Lowell Wood is a gamma-ray color camera, but the needed R&D has not been funded due to complacency. Iklé reveals the FBI and Homeland Security have already done "thousands" of "false alarm" searches - yet Congress has not funded the new technology to detect stolen nuclear materials.

Second, Iklé shocks us when he describes how the US Congress has failed to pass legislation to determine in advance how Congress would be restored after a "super 9/11."

Third, the Congress has not yet clarified what emergency powers any future President would have [or be denied] after a "super 9/11."

Fourth, Iklé exposes an obscure UN protocol on asylum from 1967 that could require the US to accept asylum seekers, even if they have committed super terrorist acts - Taliban soldiers were admitted to the UK and Holland after 9/11 under this UN protocol.

Fifth, Iklé proposes that after a "super 9/11" incident, a coalition government like Churchill's welcoming Atlee in World War II [despite the error of Munich] and FDR-Truman worked with Republicans Vandenberg and Foster Dulles. Ikle implies a Woodrow Wilson- type of extreme partisan could not hold the nation together after a super 9/11. [Wilson famously scorned Senator Lodge and the Senate soon rejected the UN Charter of its day, which some historians claim began the path to World War II.]

Iklé is cautiously optimistic that Americans have the stamina and patriotism to prevail against an attempt to annihilate the US Government from within, but the chances will improve if his proposals are implemented. He says, "The United States would be the most difficult target for a any such nuclear power-grab, ... because of its inner political strength." And an important source of strength for Americans is their "common emotional bond with the past," based on the "extraordinary continuity of the American Constitution." An overarching historical account gives reasons to adopt Iklé's five proposals: his warning of our excessive optimism about technological progress that disregards the growing divergence between technology and the global political order. Iklé's concern about nuclear accidents at The Rand Corp. in the 1950s led to the safety controls (PALs) on nuclear weapons, so he knows as an insider how detailed proposals can be supported by broad, even sweeping reviews.

Ikle opens an entirely new vista with his succinct projection of two converging trends: advances in computer science and brain science. Unless this convergence can be stopped (and there is nothing in sight that would stop it) some nations will build decision centers that complement the strength of the latest computers with the unique capabilities of the human brain. China already initiated such a decision center for long term forecasting. If a truly effective brain-computer symbiosis can be achieved, Iklé warns, it may pose a fundamental challenge to all religions; indeed it could upend human civilization.

Ikle takes great pains to explain why this vista is not the same as the false claims of the Artificial Intelligence enthusiasts, who have predicted for fifty years that computers (without a living brain) will soon surpass the full panoply of human intelligence. Iklé's book, carefully read, will be an eye-opene

This little book brings a lot of thought to the fore. There are basically three themes I'd like to mention:

Nuclear Terrorism - He sees this as a major threat. So do I. And for the first time the terrorists will have the opportunity to create real havoc. And if done say in Washington during a time when the President is addressing a joint session of congress it could effectively de-capitate the country. Or if done at a G8 summit. Or if it done so as to wipe out the present leadership of Saudi Arabia.

He sees the potential of a ruthless, perhaps messianic leader then stepping forward and taking over the country as Hitler did after the Reichstag fire. I don't see that happening here. We don't have a history of such actions in this country. On the other hand we do have a history of revolution and assassination. Fear of such a takeover was why the writers of the constitution put in the second ammendment. The Nazi's used gun registration records to remove guns from the people that didn't support them, i.e. the Jews.

But could someone, Osama bin Laden perhaps, use a nuclear device to wipe out the Saudi leadership and then take over Saudi Arabia. Possibly, and the removal of Saudi oil from the world market would be at risk. This would give us a big time depression, or an invasion of course.

Finally he sees the growth of super-human intelligence in computers as being a threat. I've been in the computer business for more than forty years. I don't see even a hint of this.

All in all, a very thought provoking book.

The anthrax incidents in the fall of 2001 are the kinds of terrorist (domestic or foreign) that form the model of attacks that Ikle addresses--incidents or attacks that have profound conquences but are difficult or impossible to trace to a country or to individuals. The capability to deliver such an attack will grow as technology develops to a point where a small group of terrorists can stage an event with effects that exceed those of 9/11. Several well presented recommendations for preparation at the national level are presented. A divergence to "intelligent computers taking over the world" seems to be overplayed a bit; otherwise it would get five stars from me.