Stirred by the mention of "uncertainty" (a pet topic), I purchased this zany refutation of everything conventional. A total contrarian, and full of cynicism, I'm not really sure even still what this author advocates... that we should NOT plan for tomorrow, because the sun might not rise? To buy flood insurance?? Who knows? - Because he certainly proposes that we learn ANYTHING from experience.
He says it's the 9/11s and Tsunamis that have a great impact in our lives. How true, and yet most of us cannot ignore the "small hours" (Rob Thomas's latest song about poignant moments) or the individual people who have had huge impacts upon us. So what exactly is his point?
Can we truly say that we shouldn't plan on going to college, and someday actually attend because of the random tornados that might intervene? Or on some day having children? Give me a break. This author's very metaphor of a "black swan" being rare, unpredictable, and big impact is inappropriate... Please -- I ask you -- what big impact does a black swan have, or ever had upon the first one's discovery? Why didn't he name the book "earthquake" -- Now there's an unpredictable, rare and big impact event!!
When you read some of the names of theorists this author has insulted, it becomes apparent that he has some real issues, and is in a deep search for some attention from anywhere he can get it. Self-discredited, he doesn't like Bell curves -- well that's because this individual is way out in six sigma land -- an outlier to be ignored. That unpredictable things will happen is not argued, but that we should not have logical expectations is inane. Disappointed -- This book won't sell, despite a snazzy look and (poor) metaphor. It is of little value to anyone who wants to make things happen in the real, mostly predictable, world.

Definitely worth a read (along with fooled by randomness) for the ideas it presents. However, the author is deeply and passionately in love with every aspect of himself, his ideas, his ancestry, his lifestyle and his friends and is not afraid to express his feelings. Despite the author's commments that editors are worthless, this book is Exhibit A in their defense.

2007 is only 1/3 done, but the year's best business book is already clear. Taleb's book is about black swans---highly improbable events that have a big impact on the world. Think 9/11, the East Asian crash of 1997, or the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Taleb's claim is that there are so many potential black swans that even though each one is very improbable, one or another hits on a regular basis. We are blind to the black swans ahead of time because each is unlikely. More importantly we are blind after the fact because we learn about the details of the black swan that actually hit rather than thinking about all the thousands that could have hit and did not.

Taleb is a scholar and an iconoclast, skewering many sacred cows while explaining his claims and backing up his ideas. Plus this book is a lot of fun to read.

According to critic Harold Bloom, Hamlet's predicament is not "that he thinks too much" but rather that "he thinks too well," being ultimately "unable to rest in illusions of any kind." The same could be said for philosopher, essayist and trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who finds something rotten in misguided yet supremely confident investment gurus, traders, hedge fund managers, Wall Street bankers, M.B.A.s, CEOs, Nobel-winning economists and others who claim that they can predict the future and explain the past. Like everyone else, says Taleb, these so-called "experts" fail to appreciate "black swans": highly consequential but unlikely events that render predictions and standard explanations worse than worthless. Taleb's style is personal and literary, but his heterodox insights are rigorous (if sometimes jolted by authorial filigree). This combination makes for a thrilling, disturbing, contentious and unforgettable book on chance and randomness. While Taleb offers strong medicine some readers may find too bitter at times, we prescribe it to anyone who wants a powerful inoculation against gullibility.

The long awaited book after the Fooled by Randomness finally arrived at my lap (this is Surabaya, Indonesia) brought by DHL, such a happy moment. I have been afraid that the second book will not be as attractive as the former, but I m wrong! This one has a better NARRATIVE ;-), and still contain so much information and thoughts that often force you to put the book doen and think.

Fooled by Randomness is a Black Swan, so does The Black Swan, things Highly Improbable, a rare event, highly sellable book that is highly intelectual as well. The book contains Hume, Popper, Plato, Kahneman and Tversky, combined with Nassim own story and life. All deliciously weaved into a readable fabric that will glue you to your seat (or bed! In mycase) for days.

There are three type of books: The How To book, the book that will show you how to do something, The Motivational book aka Self Help, and books that "Change The Way You See Things", a perspective change book, such as this one. Books that make you rethink your own perspective and change the way you see life.

With strange chapter title like "Umberto Eco's Antilibrary" (How to seek validation) to "Living in the Antechamber of Hope", you got a chockfull of delicious stuffs, in a sense like "Bitter Sweet Chocolate" ( and NOT Milk Chocolate), which for certain type of people will be the ultimate delicious read.

A warning: this is not an easy read in the usual term, although that this is an easier read compare to Fooled By Randomness and I predict that this book will go to the "best selling" fame and glory. You have to digest and think to get the full impact. For easier read, you can read "The Halo Effect" (finished in a day) which is also a great book with similar line of thought.

I thank Nassim for such an enjoyable reading week ( I read fast, yet it took a week, to finish this) which has sharpen my mind and see life in a more "correct" way. My wife keep complaining that I mention too much of "Randomness" and "Black Swans" lately during our life's activities. Gosh! The Effect of a great book.