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“Limits to growth(LTOG), written in the 1970s, took off from Jay W Forrester's World1 model. The model in LTOG is called World3. It is essentially a simulation model with which one can examine the impact of different policies on the economic and social well being of human beings. When it was written, there was a large outcry from different camps which saw its message as being too pessimistic. However, today's increasing concern on the impact of economic growth on the environment shows that the message of this book was true. Another important aspect of the model in this book is that it is not a conventional forecasting model. In the sense that the objective is not to get a point estimate of different variables. Rather, it is about exploring different policies and the patterns of growth or collapse that these policies generate.
Mallikarjun C wrote this review Thursday, January 31 2008. ( reply | permalink ) Was this review helpful? Yes | No
An important part of this model is that this is based on the system dynamics worldview - that causality is not linear (and unidirectional); causality is cirular & cumulative. Delays in any system also imply that the actual impact of certain policies can only be seen several years down the line (by which time it is often too late to correct).
A very important book for anyone interested in the environment or in systems modeling. Email me if you need more details on this model.”
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