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Description edit
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that... read more
Ridiculously Simplified Synopsis edit
People edit
- Paul Ehrlich: Add a description of this character.
- Arnold Toynbee
- Norman Angell
- Jimmy Carter
- Peter Schiff
- Marian Keech
- Kunstler
- Davidson
- Tversky
- Rees-mogg
- Simon
- George Friedman
- Kahneman
- Oswald Spengler
- Heilbroner
- Wattenberg
- Shiller
- Ronald Reagan
- Leon Festinger
- Dr. Fox
- Johnny Carson
- Smith
- Kudlow
- Lorenz
- Gazzaniga
- Robertson
- Holmes
- Soros
- Ben Stein
- Lehmann-haupt
- Anderson
- Bueno De Mesquita
- Kristol
- Rubin
- Thynbee
- Clinton
- Richard Nixon
- Langer
- Alan Barnes
- William
Quotes edit
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“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”
Paul Ehrlich
Authors & Contributors edit
- Dan Gardner (Author)
First Edition edit
Original Language: English
Publisher: Dutton
Country: USA
Publication Date: 2010
ISBN: 9780525952053
Page Count: Add the page count.
Publisher: Dutton
Country: USA
Publication Date: 2010
ISBN: 9780525952053
Page Count: Add the page count.
Classification edit
- Library of Congress: BF463.U5 G475 2010
- Dewey: 303.4909
Subjects edit
Popular Tags
Links to Supplemental Material edit
- Book Review from Reason Magazine: In Future Babble, Gardner acknowledges his debt to political scientist Phililp Tetlock, who set up a 20-year experiment in which he enrolled nearly 300 experts in politics. Tetlock then solicited thousands of predictions about the fates of scores of countries and later checked how well they did. Not so well. Tetlock concluded that most of his experts would have been beaten by “a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” Tetlock found that the experts wearing rose-tinted glasses “assigned probabilities of 65 percent to rosy scenarios that materialized only 15 percent of the time.” Doomsters did even worse: “They assigned probabilities of 70 percent to bleak scenarios that materialized only 12 percent of the time.”
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