“Bottom Line: Like most business books, _The Long Tail_ is about 10 times as long as it needs to be. In this case, however, the book's "one big idea" (and few business books have more) is valuable enough that it merits at least reading the first chapter or two. You might even find yourself reading the whole thing, just to keep thinking about it.
A question. What percentage of Netflix's catalog (some 50,000 titles) do you suppose gets rented at least once per quarter? Go ahead, guess. When Anderson posed this question, I went for the the old business rule of thumb, the 80/20 split. 20%, I ventured. Not so. 98%. No, that's not a misprint. ninety-flipping-eight percent. The rule: if you give people infinite choice, they will exercise it. But why?
In a nutshell, the book argues that the natural shape of the demand curve in most instances is what's known as a long-tailed distribution. (Long-tailed distributions resemble hyperbolas--smooth, L-shaped curves which extend to infinity on the bottom-right. Use the Google if you want to see a picture of one.) Lots of attention for a few products (i.e., blockbusters) and much less--but never zero--attention for everything else.
Andersen argues convincingly that the "head" of the curve, the blockbuster section in which a few products command tons of attention, has been shrinking. That attention has been spilling into the "long tail" of the curve, making it fatter, so to speak. The reason for this is because closed, consolidated distribution networks (mass media, inefficient shipping networks, etc.) have been losing ground to more open, more granular distribution networks (think: the internet). There's now at least as much potential in the tail of the curve as in the head. And so, goodbye mass, blockbuster culture; hello individuated, atomized culture.
In all fairness to Anderson, the book does a fair job of thinking through some of the more curious implications and counterexamples of the idea. It _is_ a one-trick pony show, but at least it's a good trick.”
powersjq wrote this review Wednesday, June 18 2008.
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